Supply Lines II - by Gregor Macdonald - The Gregor Letter
This analysis is really good.
- Europe therefore lives in a state of fossil fuel dependency, rather than fossil fuel growth, while concurrently mounting a new, low carbon energy system built on wind and solar power. There were bound to be gaps, in the way the two systems interact with each other. Now that wind and solar are approaching 20% of continental electricity supply, the system in its current state was going to be vulnerable to either a period of lower wind output or a phase of natural gas supply constraints. At the moment, Europe is having to face both at the same time.*